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Are Malaysian rubber glove makers overstretched?
Written by Reuters
Thursday, 14 January 2010 20:36
KUALA LUMPUR: While the first wave of the H1N1 infections has ebbed, Malaysian rubber glove makers continue to see their share prices soar, raking in double-digit gains in the first two trading weeks of 2010.
The sharp gains have raised eyebrows after share prices skyrocketed last year as demand for rubber gloves surged following the global H1N1 pandemic.
Shares of Top Glove Corp Bhd, the world's biggest rubber glove maker by production capacity, jumped by about 156% over the past 12 months, and second-ranked Supermax Corp Bhd has surged 560%.
Malaysia supplies more than 60% of world's rubber latex gloves, widely used for infectious disease control purposes. Can the H1N1 flu, a sticky issue for countries, help rubber glove stocks defy the law of gravity?
Still cheap? It may be to some extent.
"The rubber glove industry is not cyclical. Unlike commodities, it's not affected by the business cycle. This is a very good, long-term business," said Ang Kok Heng, who helps manage about US$125 million (RM416.63 million) at Phillip Capital Management in Kuala Lumpur.
"The surge in demand is not a one-off thing. The glove industry tends to have a very good retention ratio, that means new customers added because of the H1N1 flu will likely become long-term customers for glove makers," he said.
Ang said he would only consider to switch out from glove makers when valuations become too expensive. In the case of mid-cap stocks, such as KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD [] and ADVENTA BHD [] that means a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of more than 15 times, he said.
The rally still has legs, said Choo Swee Kee, chief investment officer of TA Investment Management which has about US$200 million asset under management.
"Good earnings growth has put down valuations. The PE ratio for glove makers ranges between eight and 15 times, that's not like way above the market PE," said Choo.
This week, five out of 14 analysts on Top Glove have revised their annual earnings per share forecasts, hiking them by 9.1% on average, according to StarMine. StarMine's SmartEstimate shows a predicted earnings surprise of 10.8% for the year to August 2010.
SmartEstimates predict future earnings more accurately than consensus estimates by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of StarMine's top-rated analysts.
"We expect another 10% to 15% upside. We are holding on to our shares and we will accumulate those with the lowest PE," Choo said.
Malaysia's benchmark share index trades at around 15 times 2010 earnings, higher than Top Glove's 13.5 times and Supermax's 11.3 times, Thomson Reuters data showed.
Kossan and Adventa, which are smaller in both market share and size than Top Glove and Supermax, trade at single-digit PEs.
Malaysian rubber glove makers are "very overbought, the bull will have to pause a bit," said Stephen Soo, senior technical analyst at TA Securities.
On technical charts, the relative strength indicator (RSI) for all Malaysian rubber glove makers are hovering around 90, way above the 70 level that marks the overbought territory.
Share prices of rubber glove makers may drop one-third over a period of two weeks when a correction takes place, said Soo.
"The share price gains have run ahead of 2010 earnings," said a chief investment officer from a bank-backed fund management firm whose company policy does not allow him to be quoted.
While demand was strong, it remained to be seen if glove makers could ramp up production capacity fast enough to meet it. There was also a risk that surging raw material costs could dent profit margins, he said.
Infrastructure constraints, such as natural gas shortages, could derail companies' expansion plans, industry players have said.
And the price of rubber latex, from which gloves are made, has risen by more than two-thirds since last July. The world's top supplier, Thailand, denies it is sitting on stocks that it could release.
Top Glove today closed 44 sen higher at RM11.74, while Supermax added four sen to RM6.03 and Kossan one sen to RM6.84. LATEXX PARTNERS BHD [] fell 15 sen to RM4.68, the warrants nine sen to RM3.95. Adventa ended the day 10 sen lower at RM4.11. — Reuters
PETALING JAYA: Rubber glove stocks retreated yesterday after a strong rally of nearly a month from Dec 15.
Hartalega Holdings Bhd, Top Glove Corp Bhd, Supermax Corp Bhd, Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd, Latexx Partners Bhd and Adventa Bhd shares had collectively advanced by an average 47.5% to six-month highs earlier this week.
But yesterday, Top Glove was down 36 sen to RM11.38, Supermax slided 47 sen to RM5.56, Hartalega decreased 19 sen to RM7.06, Rubberex fell 30 sen to RM2.89, Latexx plunged 49 sen to RM4.19 and Adventa fell 27 sen to RM3.84.
Rubber glove stocks dominated the decliners’ list yesterday, against advances by key index FBM KLCI, which gained 3.87 points or 0.30% to 1,298.58 on a strong volume of 1.68 billion shares.
According to TA Securities analyst Ikmal Hafizi, the retreat yesterday by rubber glove stocks was a technical pullback but the fundamentals of the industry remained strong.
“Basically, it was a profit-taking session after the long rally,” he told StarBiz, adding that demand for rubber gloves was still bullish, as it had been for the past 10 years.
“For the past decade, there has not been a single year where the industry had experienced a decrease in demand,” he noted, adding that the widespread of influenza A (H1N1) had also boosted demand.
Ikmal said companies like Supermax and Top Glove have the capacity to cope with the uptrend in demand.
AmResearch said the industry’s outlook remained positive going forward with demand forecast to grow between 8% to 10% per annum despite exceptionally strong growth last year.
It said “supply is also expected to fall short of demand near term.”
More upside for latex glove manufacturers
Tags: Adventa Bhd | AmResearch | Hartalega Holdings Bhd | IRCB | Latex glove manufacturers | Latexx Partners Bhd | Potential upsides | Rubberex Corp Bhd | Supermax Corp Bhd | Top Glove Corp Bhd
Written by Joseph Chin
Monday, 18 January 2010 12:10
KUALA LUMPUR: Latex glove manufacturers, whose share price rally came to an abrupt halt last Friday, still offer potential upsides given the positive industry outlook remaining intact as demand continues to grow, analysts said.
They said there was no change in the fundamentals for the sector, despite the profit taking ahead of the weekend by speculators. Of the top 10 losers, nine of them were glove makers and the decline in share prices should provide buying opportunities.
“The rubber gloves sector is for investors looking for long-term growth. The valuations are not demanding,” said an analyst with AmResearch.
Last Friday, Latexx Partners Bhd Bhd’s share price fell 49 sen to RM4.19 while Supermax Corp Bhd lost 47 sen to RM5.56 and Top Glove Corp Bhd, the world’s largest producer, gave up 36 sen to RM11.38.
Rubberex Corp Bhd fell 30 sen to RM2.89 and its warrants lost 41 sen to RM1.89 while Adventa Bhd slipped 27 sen to RM3.84 and Hartalega Holdings Bhd was 19 sen lower at RM7.06.
Integrated Rubber Corp Bhd (IRCB), the smallest player in the sector, fell 24 sen to RM1.37 and it was the most heavily traded among the glove makers, with 27.95 million shares done.
The fall in the share price saw IRCB’s price-to-earnings ratio (PER) falling to 73.71 times, which is still very high compared to the average of 22.61 times for the sector. Adventa’s PER fell to 33.56 times, Latexx 21.09 times, Supermax 18.1 times, Top Glove 16.94 times and Hartalega 15.5 times.
AmResearch, in a recent report, said the industry outlook remained positive with demand forecast to grow between 8% and 10% per annum despite exceptional growth in 2009.
Based on global consumption of 130 billion pieces in 2008, consumption increased 12% on-year to about 145 billion pieces last year. However, the research house expected actual demand to rise between 20 billion and 22 billion pieces this year.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, January 18, 2010.
