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Here's the delima.. earnings not so hip but the stock still pays decent dividends.
Random,
Just for you... :s25:
1. Dividends still decent... but... slight decline in its payout trend.
2. Earnings. Downtrend is pretty much clear isn't it? The first half of the year has always been strongest for YiLai... however... take a look at the earnings table below.
Yi-Lai Bhd (5048.KU) - Malaysia
2nd quarter ended June 30:
Figures are in Ringgit (MYR).
2007 2006
Revenue MYR30,652,000 MYR35,092,000
Pretax Profit 6,240,000 9,041,000
Net Profit 5,254,000 6,375,000
Earnings Per Share 3.28 Sen 3.98 Sen
Dividend Omitted Omitted
6 months ended June 30:
Revenue 58,158,000 65,704,000
Pretax Profit 12,180,000 15,807,000
Net Profit 9,602,000 11,311,000
Earnings Per Share 6.00 Sen 7.07 Sen
Dividend Omitted Omitted
Current half year earnings total only 9.6 mil versus 11.3 mil last fiscal year same period.
Trailing earnings us only around some 22 mil. Assuming that Yilai perform at this rate, this will be the 3rd consecutive fiscal year of earnings decline....
Yeah... did someone said it still pays decent dividends?
For tiles production, I was told that each batch of tiles will come out different. Even if the tiles are essentially of the same grade, color etc, two different batches will result in two different tiles (i.e. there will be some difference in terms of color etc)
For these reason (correct me if I'm wrong) developers normally purchase more tiles than they will use in construction to compensate for the possibillity of needing to replace the tiles in the future.
Say Yilai produced 100% of Batch A, and developer CowBuilders purchased 80% of Batch A, Yilai is still left with 20% which is left in the inventory. Later CowBuilders placed order for the same set of tiles, so Yilai produce Batch B. But this Batch B tiles might differ in some ways to Batch A. And CowBuilders only want 80% which is taken from Batch B. So what happens to the leftovers? Maybe they are sold to the local market for renovation?
So maybe this is one reason for the increase in inventory? You might ask since Cowbuilders only placed order for so and so amount, why can't Yilai just produce the exact quantity? The reason is that they will need to compensate for the fact that maybe some tiles will come out wrong. This is why they have produce extra just in case.
I am no expert in tiles, this is what I've heard. So please correct me if I'm wrong.
And I know for a fact that the local tile industry is protected against cheap imports. And as hhc has mentioned before, there is a supply of higher quality and cheaper (?) tiles from China etc
Does this not say something?
So the fact is Yilai is not only facing competition from local tile makers, but from overseas ones as well..
Thanks for your comments on the inventory issue. Yes, I do believe that there's some truth in what you are saying. At the end of the day, the fact remains, that the inventory level of a tile maker is relatively high. Which brings us the issue of the shelf life, which i am sure you are well aware that it does carry a life span. The longer it remains an inventory, these tiles could either run out of fashion or it could discolour.
Regarding imports. I am still a believer that our tiles makers will have a competitive advantage over them Chinese tiles. The importers of these tiles are stockist, and they do need to be extremely good in what they are doing to compete againts the local manufacturers. They need to carry the right design and they also need to ensure that their stocks will sell. And the tiles in nature are bulky. Hence freight is but an issue and not forgetting the time frame involved to bring the tiles in from China to Malaysia. Oh, I am sure you could go on and on...
And last but not least, this China tiles issues... has been around since 2002....
The main concern for me is the competition amongst local boys.
And secondly... i could be wrong here... but I would ass-u-me that during the peak (back in 2004) for Yilai, this was during the time when the lower to mid range houses were hot. This for me, was Yilai's boom. Tiles were simply the favoured option.
Now... if not mistaken... it's the higher end houses that's in demand... and these houses... tiles makers not only compete against each other but they have to compete against alternative such as wooden floorings..
One common misconception is China goods are commonly assumed to be cheap but of questionable quality. I beg to differ. In China goods, I believe the quality is proportianate to the price you are willing to pay.
Ceramics in China has a very long history, yes? I do not think local manufacturers have the advantage to be honest.
I did my renovation around 2 years ago and i pay a lot of attention to tiles.
Generally, Chinese tile quality is better than local in the same price range. They have more variety for you to choose from and at different price range as well.
The misconception of chinese low quality is partly to be blamed on developers who skims on tile selection. They just want the cheapest and this cause our misconception.
For tile, i will rank european as the trend setter (if not mistaken, italic is the first to produce the glazed tile , hormogeous a few years back). THe in asia, taiwan maker is quite innovative (just look at taiwanese deco magazine and u will know that). In asean, thai tiles are actually better quality than our local marker at just slightly on the high price.
Another point is that transportation cost will rank signinficantly in tile total cost of product. So, china tile effect will be lesser on lower cost segment when they move up the value chain (they r doing it v quickly). Before long, you might see that our tile maker is losing even the higher margin segment.
My contractor told me that the kuda brand got serious quality issue 2 years back. Even in same batch, u will face a lot of warpage issue and they will charge more if i insist on using the kuda. He recommended chinse tile as they are easier to work with and actually, rank better than all local tiles except those cheap white tile for my internal kitchen cabinet wall (i think from guocera).
MM brought out a good point that tile seemed to be not prefered in house renovation. Actually, my second storey is wooden flooring and i think their price had come down significantly that anyone can afford to use them. And i heard the time for wood flooring is only 1 or 2 days and minumum disruption to occupants which is a plus point compared to tiles.
So.. tile maker is facing mulitple challenges.
1)Subsitute product (wood flooring)
2)Higher transport cost (fuel and inflation)
3)Imported tile from china which is cheaper and better.
4)Bad image of local boy quality product.
5)Higher ads expendiure (show house costs more than million to build)
6)Lousy pro market
7)Over capacity due to over expansion in go go years
8)Design life cycle is short and an inventory is almost as good as scrap.
9)Hard to fix tile floor than wood flooring.
Having said all these, issnt investment about buying value? You might want to look at cement industry at 1 year ago when no one is paying any attention. But.. i will like to see more value before i commit my fund.....Hijo
